tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Phoenix via Atlanta: arrives on time 70%

  1. 11:07 MSN → 14:13 ATL
    DL 2681 · Delta · 2h 06m · 91% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 46m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 ATL → 18:53 PHX
    DL 836 · Delta · 3h 59m · 73% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 9h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 181 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 46m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip9h 51mMSN 11:07 to PHX 18:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.