tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Aspen via Los Angeles: arrives on time 58%

  1. 14:30 SFO → 15:56 LAX
    DL 2725 · Delta · 1h 29m · 49% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:12 LAX → 20:23 ASE
    DL 3704 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 11m · 84% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip4h 53mSFO 14:30 to ASE 20:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.