tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Reno via Los Angeles: arrives on time 33%

  1. 14:30 SFO → 15:56 LAX
    DL 2725 · Delta · 1h 29m · 49% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:49 LAX → 18:20 RNO
    DL 4126 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 31m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection37%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 63% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (37%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip3h 50mSFO 14:30 to RNO 18:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.