tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Jacksonville via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 15:30 MSP → 19:18 LGA
    DL 2732 · Delta · 2h 47m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 LGA → 23:11 JAX
    DL 5791 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 53m · 67% on time, 10.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (10.5% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 38mMSP 15:30 to JAX 23:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.