tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 22%

  1. 15:50 ATL → 17:04 ORD
    DL 2738 · Delta · 2h 16m · 62% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:57 ORD → 19:38 MSP
    DL 1306 · Delta · 1h 41m · 51% on time, 7.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (7.2% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip4h 48mATL 15:50 to MSP 19:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.