tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Chicago via Minneapolis: arrives on time 67%

  1. 00:35 SFO → 06:09 MSP
    DL 2789 · Delta · 3h 34m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:00 MSP → 08:35 ORD
    DL 1544 · Delta · 1h 35m · 83% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip6h 00mSFO 00:35 to ORD 08:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.