tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → New York via Minneapolis: arrives on time 80%

  1. 00:35 SFO → 06:09 MSP
    DL 2789 · Delta · 3h 34m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 56m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:05 MSP → 13:46 LGA
    DL 2764 · Delta · 2h 41m · 83% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 10h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 191 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 56m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip10h 11mSFO 00:35 to LGA 13:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.