tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Phoenix via Atlanta: arrives on time 51%

  1. 17:00 BWI → 19:08 ATL
    DL 2799 · Delta · 2h 05m · 78% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 ATL → 20:59 PHX
    DL 757 · Delta · 4h 00m · 71% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip6h 59mBWI 17:00 to PHX 20:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.