tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Nashville via Detroit: arrives on time 50%

  1. 18:10 STL → 20:45 DTW
    DL 2822 · Delta · 1h 35m · 76% on time, 3.1% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 DTW → 22:15 BNA
    DL 2126 · Delta · 1h 40m · 75% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (3.1% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 05mSTL 18:10 to BNA 22:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.