tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Dulles via Detroit: arrives on time 46%

  1. 18:10 STL → 20:45 DTW
    DL 2822 · Delta · 1h 35m · 76% on time, 3.1% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:38 DTW → 23:14 IAD
    DL 3988 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (3.1% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 04mSTL 18:10 to IAD 23:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.