tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Rapid City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 52%

  1. 11:10 DEN → 14:10 MSP
    DL 2849 · Delta · 2h 00m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:00 MSP → 15:48 RAP
    DL 3851 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 48m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 38mDEN 11:10 to RAP 15:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.