tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Las Vegas via Detroit: arrives on time 70%

  1. 10:44 TPA → 13:27 DTW
    DL 2852 · Delta · 2h 43m · 85% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 08m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:35 DTW → 17:56 LAS
    DL 766 · Delta · 4h 21m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 143 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 08m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip10h 12mTPA 10:44 to LAS 17:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.