tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → New York via Los Angeles: arrives on time 62%

  1. 17:30 SEA → 20:15 LAX
    DL 2861 · Delta · 2h 45m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 LAX → 05:25 JFK +1 day
    DL 960 · Delta · 5h 15m · 86% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip8h 55mSEA 17:30 to JFK 05:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.