tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → New York via Minneapolis: arrives on time 31%

  1. 15:00 DCA → 16:48 MSP
    DL 2863 · Delta · 2h 48m · 61% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 22m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:10 MSP → 22:09 JFK
    DL 5244 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 59m · 52% on time, 11.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 37 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 22m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (11.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip7h 09mDCA 15:00 to JFK 22:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.