tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → San Jose via Minneapolis: arrives on time 47%

  1. 15:00 DCA → 16:48 MSP
    DL 2863 · Delta · 2h 48m · 61% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 42m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 MSP → 20:35 SJC
    DL 2087 · Delta · 4h 07m · 68% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 57 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 42m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 37mDCA 15:00 to SJC 20:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.