tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Santa Ana via Minneapolis: arrives on time 47%

  1. 15:00 DCA → 16:48 MSP
    DL 2863 · Delta · 2h 48m · 61% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 40m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:28 MSP → 20:24 SNA
    DL 2107 · Delta · 3h 56m · 68% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 55 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 40m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 24mDCA 15:00 to SNA 20:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.