tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → San Diego via Minneapolis: arrives on time 52%

  1. 15:00 DCA → 16:48 MSP
    DL 2863 · Delta · 2h 48m · 61% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 02m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MSP → 20:36 SAN
    DL 2145 · Delta · 3h 50m · 73% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 77 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 02m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip8h 40mDCA 15:00 to SAN 20:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.