tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Tampa via Minneapolis: arrives on time 52%

  1. 15:00 DCA → 16:48 MSP
    DL 2863 · Delta · 2h 48m · 61% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 27m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:15 MSP → 22:26 TPA
    DL 2385 · Delta · 3h 11m · 75% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 42 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 27m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 26mDCA 15:00 to TPA 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.