tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Chicago via Minneapolis: arrives on time 55%

  1. 11:47 EWR → 13:44 MSP
    DL 2864 · Delta · 2h 58m · 82% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 54m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:38 MSP → 18:18 MDW
    DL 4714 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 39m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 129 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 54m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip7h 30mEWR 11:47 to MDW 18:18, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.