tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Traverse City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 45%

  1. 11:47 EWR → 13:44 MSP
    DL 2864 · Delta · 2h 58m · 82% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 41m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:25 MSP → 17:55 TVC
    DL 4915 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 30m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 56 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 41m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 08mEWR 11:47 to TVC 17:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.