tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 65%

  1. 11:47 EWR → 13:44 MSP
    DL 2864 · Delta · 2h 58m · 82% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:07 MSP → 17:14 SFO
    DL 756 · Delta · 4h 06m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip8h 26mEWR 11:47 to SFO 17:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.