tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Memphis via Minneapolis: arrives on time 70%

  1. 11:47 EWR → 13:44 MSP
    DL 2864 · Delta · 2h 58m · 82% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 01m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:45 MSP → 17:59 MEM
    DL 4063 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 14m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 76 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 01m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip7h 12mEWR 11:47 to MEM 17:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.