tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Madison via Minneapolis: arrives on time 58%

  1. 18:45 EWR → 21:00 MSP
    DL 2866 · Delta · 3h 13m · 75% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 MSP → 23:00 MSN
    DL 1599 · Delta · 1h 03m · 83% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip5h 17mEWR 18:45 to MSN 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.