tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Diego via Minneapolis: arrives on time 47%

  1. 18:45 EWR → 21:00 MSP
    DL 2866 · Delta · 3h 13m · 75% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:47 MSP → 23:30 SAN
    DL 2146 · Delta · 3h 46m · 78% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip7h 48mEWR 18:45 to SAN 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.