tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Bozeman via Minneapolis: arrives on time 56%

  1. 18:45 EWR → 21:00 MSP
    DL 2866 · Delta · 3h 13m · 75% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:23 MSP → 23:52 BZN
    DL 2954 · Delta · 2h 35m · 73% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 13mEWR 18:45 to BZN 23:52, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.