tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Seattle via Minneapolis: arrives on time 60%

  1. 18:45 EWR → 21:00 MSP
    DL 2866 · Delta · 3h 13m · 75% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:08 MSP → 23:58 SEA
    DL 505 · Delta · 3h 50m · 83% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip8h 13mEWR 18:45 to SEA 23:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.