tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → San Francisco via Detroit: arrives on time 67%

  1. 10:20 STL → 12:55 DTW
    DL 2868 · Delta · 1h 35m · 92% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 24m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:19 DTW → 18:13 SFO
    DL 442 · Delta · 4h 54m · 69% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 159 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 24m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip9h 53mSTL 10:20 to SFO 18:13, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.