tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Louisville via Detroit: arrives on time 73%

  1. 06:00 DCA → 07:30 DTW
    DL 2869 · Delta · 1h 30m · 94% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:25 DTW → 09:55 SDF
    DL 3821 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 30m · 84% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip3h 55mDCA 06:00 to SDF 09:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.