tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Sioux Falls via Minneapolis: arrives on time 42%

  1. 18:31 DFW → 21:00 MSP
    DL 2873 · Delta · 2h 29m · 55% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 MSP → 23:06 FSD
    DL 1694 · Delta · 1h 04m · 80% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 38mDFW 18:31 to FSD 23:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.