tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Rapid City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:31 DFW → 21:00 MSP
    DL 2873 · Delta · 2h 29m · 55% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:54 MSP → 22:37 RAP
    DL 3714 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 43m · 73% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 06mDFW 18:31 to RAP 22:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.