tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Santa Ana via Minneapolis: arrives on time 53%

  1. 15:00 EWR → 17:08 MSP
    DL 2895 · Delta · 3h 08m · 78% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:28 MSP → 20:24 SNA
    DL 2107 · Delta · 3h 56m · 68% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 24mEWR 15:00 to SNA 20:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.