tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → San Francisco via Atlanta: arrives on time 50%

  1. 19:35 IAD → 21:39 ATL
    DL 2902 · Delta · 2h 00m · 78% on time, 6.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ATL → 00:40 SFO +1 day
    DL 656 · Delta · 5h 00m · 70% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (6.6% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 05mIAD 19:35 to SFO 00:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.