tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Grand Rapids via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 10:35 ORD → 13:56 LGA
    DL 2917 · Delta · 2h 21m · 72% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:45 LGA → 17:07 GRR
    DL 5104 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 22m · 72% on time, 5.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (5.1% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 32mORD 10:35 to GRR 17:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.