tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Newark via Atlanta: arrives on time 48%

  1. 19:10 MEM → 21:41 ATL
    DL 2939 · Delta · 1h 31m · 73% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ATL → 00:57 EWR +1 day
    DL 2552 · Delta · 2h 18m · 70% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 48mMEM 19:10 to EWR 00:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.