tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Traverse City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 46%

  1. 12:00 DCA → 13:45 MSP
    DL 2958 · Delta · 2h 45m · 78% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 40m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:25 MSP → 17:55 TVC
    DL 4915 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 30m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 55 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 40m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 55mDCA 12:00 to TVC 17:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.