tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Minneapolis: arrives on time 50%

  1. 12:00 DCA → 13:45 MSP
    DL 2958 · Delta · 2h 45m · 78% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:34 MSP → 16:31 XNA
    DL 4012 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 57m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 31mDCA 12:00 to XNA 16:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.