tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Madison via Minneapolis: arrives on time 64%

  1. 18:59 DCA → 20:49 MSP
    DL 2963 · Delta · 2h 50m · 74% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 MSP → 23:00 MSN
    DL 1599 · Delta · 1h 03m · 83% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip5h 03mDCA 18:59 to MSN 23:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.