tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Sacramento via Minneapolis: arrives on time 71%

  1. 15:38 ATL → 17:16 MSP
    DL 2981 · Delta · 2h 39m · 74% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 MSP → 20:37 SMF
    DL 574 · Delta · 3h 52m · 79% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip7h 59mATL 15:38 to SMF 20:37, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.