tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Des Moines via Detroit: arrives on time 59%

  1. 14:29 LGA → 16:34 DTW
    DL 308 · Delta · 2h 05m · 79% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 DTW → 20:41 DSM
    DL 5087 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 56m · 65% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 146 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip7h 12mLGA 14:29 to DSM 20:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.