tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sarasota/Bradenton → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 60%

  1. 18:22 SRQ → 20:13 ATL
    DL 3109 · Delta · 1h 51m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:15 ATL → 22:17 MDW
    DL 1076 · Delta · 2h 02m · 77% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip4h 55mSRQ 18:22 to MDW 22:17, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.