tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sarasota/Bradenton → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 50%

  1. 18:22 SRQ → 20:13 ATL
    DL 3109 · Delta · 1h 51m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 ATL → 23:23 LGA
    DL 520 · Delta · 2h 23m · 72% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 01mSRQ 18:22 to LGA 23:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.