tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Washington via Atlanta: arrives on time 40%

  1. 16:31 BNA → 18:49 ATL
    DL 3142 · Delta · 1h 18m · 69% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 ATL → 21:46 DCA
    DL 727 · Delta · 1h 51m · 57% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 15mBNA 16:31 to DCA 21:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.