tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → St Louis via Atlanta: arrives on time 9%

  1. 16:31 BNA → 18:49 ATL
    DL 3142 · Delta · 1h 18m · 69% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 20:20 ATL → 21:00 STL
    WN 241 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 15% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time9%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (15%).
Total trip4h 29mBNA 16:31 to STL 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.