tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 44%

  1. 14:51 BNA → 17:04 ATL
    DL 3159 · Delta · 1h 16m · 78% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ATL → 20:27 LGA
    DL 434 · Delta · 2h 27m · 64% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 36mBNA 14:51 to LGA 20:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.