tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Phoenix via Atlanta: arrives on time 50%

  1. 14:51 BNA → 17:04 ATL
    DL 3159 · Delta · 1h 16m · 78% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 ATL → 18:53 PHX
    DL 836 · Delta · 3h 59m · 73% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 07mBNA 14:51 to PHX 18:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.