tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 43%

  1. 16:00 BHM → 18:14 ATL
    DL 3163 · Delta · 1h 14m · 76% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 ATL → 21:25 LGA
    DL 468 · Delta · 2h 25m · 67% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 25mBHM 16:00 to LGA 21:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.