tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Nashville via Minneapolis: arrives on time 56%

  1. 17:36 STL → 19:15 MSP
    DL 3185 · Delta · 1h 39m · 72% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 MSP → 22:29 BNA
    DL 1144 · Delta · 2h 09m · 79% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 53mSTL 17:36 to BNA 22:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.