tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 57%

  1. 17:36 STL → 19:15 MSP
    DL 3185 · Delta · 1h 39m · 72% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 27m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:42 MSP → 23:50 SFO
    DL 2089 · Delta · 4h 07m · 61% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 102 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 27m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip8h 13mSTL 17:36 to SFO 23:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.