tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Philadelphia via Minneapolis: arrives on time 55%

  1. 17:36 STL → 19:15 MSP
    DL 3185 · Delta · 1h 39m · 72% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 MSP → 23:56 PHL
    DL 2703 · Delta · 2h 32m · 77% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 21mSTL 17:36 to PHL 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.