tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Detroit via Atlanta: arrives on time 54%

  1. 16:40 SDF → 18:19 ATL
    DL 3195 · Delta · 1h 39m · 82% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 ATL → 21:16 DTW
    DL 1262 · Delta · 2h 01m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 36mSDF 16:40 to DTW 21:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.